It's Week 17, which means NFL coaches and bettors alike have to grapple with what to do when a playoff
Lenny Dykstra Jersey team has more to risk by playing their starters than they do in losing the final game of the regular season. Three teams find themselves in that situation this week: the Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks.The Saints have locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and losing this Sunday would do nothing to hurt their playoff outlook. The Cowboys have won the NFC East but are two games back of the Bears, meaning they're going to be the No. 4 seed and play the best wild-card team. That will likely be the Seahawks, who at 9-6 are a half-game up on the Vikings for the No. 5 seed but can't fall any lower than sixth, meaning at best they're playing in Week 17 for the opportunity to face the Cowboys instead of the Bears.The Seahawks don't have a history of resting players in Week 17 when they have the chance, and for that reason they're still ma sive favorites at home against the Cardinals. But what will the Saints and Cowboys do on Sunday?I build my power ratings lines based on how much better or worse a team is than average plus the home-field advantage I've affixed to the matchup. Normally these lines will be within a point of the actual lines, but when the gap is wider, that's where there can be an advantage that the market is mi sing. I've tracked all such disparities throughout the season, and when my power ratings line is 1.5 points or more off from the Las Vegas SuperContest line, the team on which I think there's value is 64-48-1 this season. That 57.1 percent mark is a highly profitable one long-term in a market where you need to be right 52.38 percent of the time on -110 bets to break even. I bring up my power ratings line because they show how much the market is devaluing the Saints and Cowboys in a week where both figure to be resting players. If the Saints were playing the Panthers at home with Carolina down to its third-string QB and New Orleans going all out, my power ratings say the line should be Saints -19. However, the Saints are favored by just 9, which is the market telling you that Drew Brees isn't going to play much, if at all, on Sunday.If the Cowboys were taking their game seriously against the Giants, they'd be road favorites. My power ratings line puts it at Cowboys -1.5, but I think that's a little short of where the market would have it, as I'm higher than most on the Giants based on how they've played in the second half, and I have them tied for 17th in my ratings. It's likely the Cowboys would wind up favored by at least 3 if the market thought they were going all out. Instead, the Giants are favored by 6.As a bettor, how can you account for this discrepancy in what a line
Wilmer Flores Jersey would be in a serious matchup and what it is with a playoff team resting players? I looked at every matchup where a playoff team closed as six-point underdogs (like the Cowboys) or worse in Week 17 since the 2000 season, then went through each game to see whether the QB who started the first playoff game played most of the Week 17
Michael Conforto Jersey game to weed out which teams were taking the game seriously for 60 minutes. That gave us a sample size of 17 games and an ATS record of 7-10 for those 'dogs, but with some mitigating factors. YearTeamLineOppResultCover?2017@Rams+649ersL 13-34No2016Cowboys+6.5@EaglesL 13-27No2013Chiefs+14.5@ChargersL 24-27 (OT)Yes2011@Packers+6.5LionsW 45-41Yes2009Bengals+10@JetsL 0-37No2009Colts+8@BillsL 7-30No2009Saints+10@PanthersL 10-23No2009Patriots+7.5@TexansL 27-34Yes2008Giants+7@VikingsL 19-20Yes2007Cowboys+9@RedskinsL 6-27No2007Jaguars+7@TexansL 28-42No2005Bengals+7.5@ChiefsL 3-37No2005Broncos+7@ChargersW 23-7Yes2004Colts+10@BroncosL 14-33No2004Steelers+9.5@BillsW 29-24Yes2004@Chargers+6.5ChiefsW 24-17Yes2003Broncos+10@PackersL 3-31NoThe first thing to note is that only four of those underdogs won outright, with three of those cases coming in 2005 or earlier. If we reduce our target range to just 2007 or later, we get a 4-7 ATS record and a 1-10 SU record for playoff teams who are underdogs of six or more in Week 17.As for how you get the cover in those scenarios, it mostly comes down to a team playing their starter for a significant portion of the game before giving way to the backup (2009 Patriots, 2008 Giants, 2005 Broncos) or having an experienced backup (2004 Steelers with Tommy Maddox, 2004 Chargers with Doug Flutie). And even that doesn't guarantee anything -- the 2009 Colts had Peyton Manning and Curtis Painter see about the same amount of pa sing attempts and still lost 30-7, while Mark Brunell wasn't able to make the 2009 Saints competitive in Week 17 near the end of his career. But at least employing one of those two scenarios gives you a chance at a cover.The 2018 Cowboys don't have an experienced backup, so unle s Dak Prescott and the rest of the offensive starters see a good bit of action, which I consider unlikely, they seem like a longshot to cover this week. Unle s Cooper Rush is Matt Flynn (2011 Packers) reincarnate. If you want to know which sides I like this week, you
Jeurys Familia Jersey can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . Each week in this space, I'm going to go behind the lines and picks to bring you a bit of a deeper dive into what you should know before locking in your plays. Let's get to it. My picks Over at SportsLine, . Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. However, you can get one free pick with my teaser of the week, which has hit 75 percent of the time this season at the end of this article. Enjoy! Cowboys at Giants (-6.5)Home-field advantage: 2 points Power rating line: Cowboys -1.5 Lookahead line: Giants -3.5 DALNYG Record vs. spread 8-78-6-1 Yards
Gary Carter Jersey per play differential 0.00.0 Points per drive offense rank 1819 Points per drive defense rank 723 Weighted DVOA -4.56.2 Pa s offense DVOA rank 2716 Pa s defense DVOA rank 1423 Run offense DVOA rank 1721 Run defense DVOA rank 419Talk about deja vu: Two years ago, the Cowboys entered Week 17 with nothing to play for and ended up 6.5-point underdogs on the road against a divisional opponent with a losing record. Ezekiel Elliott didn't play at all in that game while Dez Bryant and Jason Witten each saw one target. Dak Prescott played the first two drives, lasting just into the second quarter, before giving way to Tony Romo, who led the team to a touchdown on his only drive before giving way to Mark Sanchez. The Cowboys were up 10-3 at that point but the defense surrendered a touchdown just before halftime and packed it in for the second half, ultimately losing the game
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